Election results
I swore off any TV or radio coverage of the election. In fact, I tried to avoid any coverage, but I succumbed.
Early in the day, I checked Drudge and Tradesports and was surprised to find Kerry ahead on the electoral map, and way ahead on Tradesports. Bush had previously been up to .51, but when I checked it, Kerry was up to .6.
That evening, after working online, I decided to check Drudge before going to bed. There were links to Florida and Ohio. Tradesportrs had flipped back to .6 for Bush. Very wierd.
I heard one rumor that the news services had leaked the locations of exit polling locations to Democrats, and that they had sent activists there to skew the early results. If true, does this tactic actually work? If so, it tells me everything I need to know about people who vote for the 2 major parties.
But for that to really be effective, you have to believe that tens of news people told tens or hundreds of Democrat party activists, and that they in turn told hundreds or thousands of activists where to go. I think it is not likely that a conspiracy of that size could remain secret.
On the other hand, you now have rumors (here, here, here, and so on) of vote fraud. "Evidence" includes the fact that exit polls didn't square with final results. I don't see that as being a big deal, since early exit polls are likely to be skewed by people who vote early, i.e. hard core activists and Bush haters to whom voting is more important than work. After researching, I found that Bush's final numbers actually came up even in those areas where he lost: are we really expected to believe that Republicans were able to hack the voting machines in every county, even where they were going to lose? To believe that, you have to believe that hundreds of hackers and party activists managed to circumvent or corrupt thousands or tens of thousands of both friendly and hostile county clerk staffs. A conspiracy like that is incredibly likely to be exposed within hours of the event, perhaps even beforehand. Look how quickly we got reports of votes for Kerry on machines in Philadelphia.
Another "Ah-HA!" is the scandal wherein contractors for the Republicans were throwing away Democratic registrations. Apparently, that went back and forth for a while when it was countered with allegations that the contractors were "really" working for Democratic organizations and planting the throwaways. It finally turned out they really were working for Republicans. In the final analysis, it is a moot point because the new voting laws require provisional balloting. And it overlooks the documented cases where Democrats (and probably Republicans) were guilty of paying people to register, and registering people several times.
Conspiracy theorists point toward supposed campaigns by Republicans to call people and tell them to vote on Wednesday. Not only are these rumors hard to tie down, but they work in both directions. I read about people claiming to be from Emily's List calling people with incorrect polling locations. In any case, I got hit up by so many canvassers this year that would overwhelm anyone who dared spread disinformation.
If there was one likely source of voter fraud this year, it was the new early voting allowed throughout the country. "Vote early, vote often" as the Daley campaign was supposed to have said. However, I don't think that kind of retail fraud is as efective as the wholesale fraud that hacking voting machines would have been. That requires witnesses and trails of evidence: where are they?
Update: A roundup of debunked theories.
Early in the day, I checked Drudge and Tradesports and was surprised to find Kerry ahead on the electoral map, and way ahead on Tradesports. Bush had previously been up to .51, but when I checked it, Kerry was up to .6.
That evening, after working online, I decided to check Drudge before going to bed. There were links to Florida and Ohio. Tradesportrs had flipped back to .6 for Bush. Very wierd.
I heard one rumor that the news services had leaked the locations of exit polling locations to Democrats, and that they had sent activists there to skew the early results. If true, does this tactic actually work? If so, it tells me everything I need to know about people who vote for the 2 major parties.
But for that to really be effective, you have to believe that tens of news people told tens or hundreds of Democrat party activists, and that they in turn told hundreds or thousands of activists where to go. I think it is not likely that a conspiracy of that size could remain secret.
On the other hand, you now have rumors (here, here, here, and so on) of vote fraud. "Evidence" includes the fact that exit polls didn't square with final results. I don't see that as being a big deal, since early exit polls are likely to be skewed by people who vote early, i.e. hard core activists and Bush haters to whom voting is more important than work. After researching, I found that Bush's final numbers actually came up even in those areas where he lost: are we really expected to believe that Republicans were able to hack the voting machines in every county, even where they were going to lose? To believe that, you have to believe that hundreds of hackers and party activists managed to circumvent or corrupt thousands or tens of thousands of both friendly and hostile county clerk staffs. A conspiracy like that is incredibly likely to be exposed within hours of the event, perhaps even beforehand. Look how quickly we got reports of votes for Kerry on machines in Philadelphia.
Another "Ah-HA!" is the scandal wherein contractors for the Republicans were throwing away Democratic registrations. Apparently, that went back and forth for a while when it was countered with allegations that the contractors were "really" working for Democratic organizations and planting the throwaways. It finally turned out they really were working for Republicans. In the final analysis, it is a moot point because the new voting laws require provisional balloting. And it overlooks the documented cases where Democrats (and probably Republicans) were guilty of paying people to register, and registering people several times.
Conspiracy theorists point toward supposed campaigns by Republicans to call people and tell them to vote on Wednesday. Not only are these rumors hard to tie down, but they work in both directions. I read about people claiming to be from Emily's List calling people with incorrect polling locations. In any case, I got hit up by so many canvassers this year that would overwhelm anyone who dared spread disinformation.
If there was one likely source of voter fraud this year, it was the new early voting allowed throughout the country. "Vote early, vote often" as the Daley campaign was supposed to have said. However, I don't think that kind of retail fraud is as efective as the wholesale fraud that hacking voting machines would have been. That requires witnesses and trails of evidence: where are they?
Update: A roundup of debunked theories.
Labels: politics
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