Friday, February 01, 2008

Mental Health

This news story reminded me about a post I started a few weeks ago.

I have long believed that the existence and treatment of mental illness poses a tough political problem for libertarians generally (including the Civil Libertarians in the ACLU). I once attended a lecture given by Thomas Szasz; I could not accept his claim that mental illness is not really a disease. He claimed that it could not be legitimately called a disease since there was no cell pathology, e.g. no germ had been found to cause schizophrenia. Neither sickle cell anemia nor scurvy is caused by a foreign organism, so that doesn't seem to be the best argument to take. Furthermore, he seems to have fallen into Taleb's round trip error: "no germ found to cause disease" has become "no germs exist to cause the disease" [1]. However, he made a good case that the state has historically been given powers too broad for locking people up on the basis of insanity, for reasons that once included a wife's disobedience.

The problem as I see it with mental illness is that it is tough to construct a mechanism for treating the patient when the patient does not necessarily agree with either the prescription or the diagnosis. It seems easy to say that we should treat patients against their will when they are a danger to others, but what about when they are only a danger to themselves? Who gets to decide that? And on what basis? Is not a mortally obese person a danger to themselves? What about an extreme sport enthusiast? What about bicycle messengers? Abused, this could become a thin veneer for a state that wants to lock up the merely idiosynchratic. These people might include Howard Hughes, most physical science researchers (physicists), and Andy Kaufman. I'm afraid of its abuse by a government that already wants to assert broad powers for locking people up and holding them for indeterminate periods of time without a trial on the basis of secret evidence. [2]

The involuntary treatment solution is also known as Assisted Outpatient Treatment or AOT. The State of New York, among other places, has passed a form of this in Kendra's Law. Kendra's Law failed the gentlemen described in "Free to Die in Iowa" (Michael Judge, WSJ, 22 Dec 2007) (hattip: fashion-incubator) because the doctors apparently didn't know that they could have treated the man involuntarily. Kendra's Law is so-named for a girl killed by a man in the NYC subway. The man apparently had some limited access to treatment (199 treatments in two years and $95k in one year is hardly a lack of access), but he refused treatment on many occasions.

The primary advocate of Kendra's Law is a researcher by the name of Edward Fuller Torrey. Torrey is a former adviser to the National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI), an education and advocacy group. NAMI was founded in 1979 in the wake of the deinstitutionalization movement of the 1970s. NAMI advocates community treatment, a comprehensive approach involving the "consumer", their family and friends, civil authorities, medical professionals, and other orgranizations.

The deinstitutionalization movement started in the 1950s and 1960s, and achieved success in the 1970s. The Community Mental Health Act (CMHA) of 1963 is said to be a significant milestone in the history of the movement, though it isn't clear whether the measure was taken to address concerns for the rights of patients or for fiscal reasons (probably both). Another significant event in the history of the movement was the success of the book and subsequent movie, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest. The movement has elements of Post Modernist Michel Foucault's thoughts on the cultural and social meaning of "sanity" as well as ACLU opposition to involuntary incarceration and the anti-psychiatry movement. The anti-psychiatry movement itself is fueled in part by Scientology and in part by legitimate recognition of some of its shortcomings, such as the fact that homosexuality was listed as a mental illness by the American Psychiatry Association as recently as 1974. More recently, the finding of increasing numbers of children to have ADHD in order to control their behavior with Ritalin seems to have some merit as legitimate criticism. Additionally, it is noted that many clinicians are also stakeholders in pharmaceutical interests.

I think that much of the thinking that goes into this subject is too simplistic. In part, this may be because the entire debate is locked up on the left end of the political spectrum between those who have never met a federal program they didn't like and those who don't believe the state should ever have a police function. There is broad overlap with the former group and socialists, and between the latter group and libertarians. I'm skeptical of both. [3] At the other end of the spectrum, we frequently find people like Michael Medved ranting about the injustice of failing to lock up everyone who poses a danger to anyone without any apparent consideration of whether jail is the appropriate environment for people whose main problem is bad genetic luck.

What are the meta problems?
- Who will watch the watchers?
- How do you take politics out of defining what "risk to oneself" means?
- Where do you draw the line on risk to oneself? 1%? 10%? Imminent danger? Isn't the latter the most obvious category, and one that is mainly detected too late no matter how much we spend on the problem?
- Can we recognize that we are talking about locking people up, but we simply aren't calling it jail? We can call it a hospital, but that doesn't mean it is any less oppressive than jail. The patients are still at the mercy of the staff and to a large extent other patients.

I have very little problem with funding mental health initiatives. As usual, I would rather see it done at the private, then the local, then the state level, but not at the federal level at all.

To some extent, this is exactly what is happening. NAMI is private. The local chapter of NAMI has obtained some sponsorship of temporary communal living quarters. That has been augmented with City and State funding. I think it is underfunded, but that should only drive the creativity of the advocates that much harder (isn't this what they say when they advocate unfunded mandates on various industries?)

We also know that action in the private sphere is moving faster than in the public sphere, due in part to consumers who are demanding more of their employer-sponsored health packages. "During the past three decades, per enrollee spending for a common benefit package has grown at a slightly slower average annual rate for Medicare than for private health insurance," according to this. To be sure, this doesn't help people who are unemployed, but it does help those teenagers whose parents are employed and insured to get early treatment, keeping them off the public programs.

The money is spent on doctors, nurses, support staff, facilities, and medication. Not as much money is required if stabilization can be achieved quickly. That means having a very effective, broad program that directs people into the system quickly.

I doubt social medicine works any better on this score. Homelessness and schizophrenia are significant problems in both Europe and Canada. Recall the recent riots in the Netherlands as homeless people were evicted from squatting in abandoned buildings? Or the recent problems with moving the homeless in Paris?

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[1] E. Fuller Torrey has been looking at the possibility that a parasite found in cat feces may have something to do with schizophrenia.

[2] And if you think secret evidence and holding people without trials started with George W., I have a bridge to sell you. The Clinton Administration also locked up foreign suspects without trial on the basis of secret evidence (see, for example, this article). I doubt this problem started in the 1990s, either. In fact, Wilson's Palmer Raids come to mind.

[3] I am reminded of the claims that Ronald Reagan is primarily responsible and the Republican party partially responsible for the lack of mental health care in the United States. This claim is due to the fact that Reagan happened to sign an 1981 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act that repealed another law, National Mental Health Systems Act of 1980, that had never gone into effect. In fact, that 1980 Law would have reduced federal expenditures on mental health care. In addition, the 1981 Omnibus bill kept the cuts, but "converted them to block grants disbursed with few strings attached. New York State, which used block-grant monies to fund community-based programs, and other states [had] to cut mental health programs." The issue then was not that the Reagan Administration was cutting funding for these programs, but more specifically, they were cutting some funding and then cutting the strings attached to that funding. The local authorities were given broad powers to use the money, and apparently failed to direct it to mental health. The blame for that failure should fall on the entire spectrum, from left to right, but it doesn't.

I think any reasonable person could conclude that Reagan's involvement was incidental since the deinstitutionalization movement preceded him, guided Congressional action on the 1963, 1980, and 1981 Acts, and led to the founding of NAMI, and that furthermore nobody has come along since and proposed replacement legislation at either the state or the federal level despite the fact that Democrats occupied the White House for 8 years and controlled Congress for 15. It seems apparent to me that there is broad recognition of the problems laid out at the beginning of this piece: that involuntary treatment of adults is a difficult problem with no easy solutions.

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Sunday, February 19, 2006

Coercive Monopsony

Two posts ago, I didn't mean to suggest that other countries "owe" Americans for the R&D our companies fund. Our companies gladly pay those costs because that is in their own interest. My point about drugs is that drug R&D is fundamentally different because American consumers pay for cost of development and manufacture, but foreign consumers pay only for manufacture, of drugs developed in the US. That in turn is caused by legal distortions intentionally introduced into the marketplace by foreign governments.

How? Coercive monopsony. Monopsony is the situation when there is only one consumer to a product, sort of the mirror opposite of monopoly. A "coercive monoposony" is the situation when there is only one consumer because they are able to force other consumers to remain out of the market. They are then able to dictate terms to the supplier, probably by forcing them to overproduce at artificially low prices.

Foreign governments create a coercive monopsony by threatening to withdraw their entire market unless manufacturer plays along with their pricing scheme. Why would the producer go along? One possible answer is that this is similar to "bundling" of anti-trust lore. The consumer (foreign National Health Service (NHS)) will agree to buy other, high margin drugs, but only if new, popular drugs are sold at marginal manufacturing cost. In fact, that seems to be the case, since most foreigners pay more for their generic drugs than Americans, but less for their name-brand drugs. From a Malcolm Gladwell article in The New Yorker:
As the economists Patricia Danzon and Michael Furukawa recently pointed out in the journal Health Affairs, drugs still under patent protection are anywhere from twenty-five to forty per cent more expensive in the United States than in places like England, France, and Canada. Generic drugs are another story. Because there are so many companies in the United States that step in to make drugs once their patents expire, and because the price competition among those firms is so fierce, generic drugs here are among the cheapest in the world. And, according to Danzon and Furukawa’s analysis, when prescription drugs are converted to over-the-counter status no other country even comes close to having prices as low as the United States.

It is not accurate to say, then, that the United States has higher prescription-drug prices than other countries. It is accurate to say only that the United States has a different pricing system from that of other countries. Americans pay more for drugs when they first come out and less as the drugs get older, while the rest of the world pays less in the beginning and more later. Whose pricing system is cheaper? It depends. If you are taking Mevacor for your cholesterol, the 20-mg. pill is two-twenty-five in America and less than two dollars if you buy it in Canada. But generic Mevacor (lovastatin) is about a dollar a pill in Canada and as low as sixty-five cents a pill in the United States. Of course, not every drug comes in a generic version. But so many important drugs have gone off-patent recently that the rate of increase in drug spending in the United States has fallen sharply for the past four years. And so many other drugs are going to go off-patent in the next few years—including the top-selling drug in this country, the anti-cholesterol medication Lipitor—that many Americans who now pay more for their drugs than their counterparts in other Western countries could soon be paying less.

As a counterpoint to this, a recent British Medical Journal article claims to have found that Americans do not subsidize others' costs for medicine. It requires a subscription, so I haven't read it, but the synopsis via Excellence Through Mediocrity is
The United States government is engaged in a campaign to characterise other industrialised countries as free riding on high US pharmaceutical prices and innovation in new drugs. This campaign is based on the argument that lower prices imposed by price controls in other affluent countries do not pay for research and development costs, so that Americans have to pay the research costs through higher prices in order to keep supplying the world with new drugs.
[...]
We can find no convincing evidence to support the view that the lower prices in affluent countries outside the United States do not pay for research and development costs. The latest report from the UK Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme documents that drug companies in the United Kingdom invest proportionately more of their revenues from domestic sales in research and development than do companies in the US. Prices in the UK are much lower than those in the US yet profits remain robust.
[...]
...in Canada the 35 companies that are members of the brand name industry association report that income from domestic sales is, on average, about 10 times greater than research and development costs. They have profits higher than makers of computer equipment and telecommunications carriers despite prices being about 40% lower than in the US.
[...]
Contrary to claims of American dominance, pharmaceutical research and development in the US has not produced more than its proportionate share of new molecular entities. The US accounts for just under 48% of world sales and spent 49% of the global total on research and development to discover 45% of the new molecular entities that were launched on the world market in 2003, less than its proportionate share. European countries account for 28% of world sales, 36% of total research and development spending, and 32% of new molecular entities, more than its proportionate share.
My first comment is that they say that this "disinformation" campaign is being driven by the US federal government; if true, they are right to question it, and because it may be the FDA's attempt to justify its own existence, they may be right. My second comment is to note that they looked only at brand name medicines, not all medicines; in light of the Gladwell article above, there's no wonder about that. Basically their evidence is that since Brits pay less than Americans, and Brit companies spend proportionately more on R&D, and since American companies only spend in proportion to their share of the world market (48%), then Europeans aren't free riding. That's bizarre - the American R&D is less substantial because it's only in proportion to their 50% higher market share? There are 50% more people in Europe, so the proportional contribution is that much larger by the US companies, rather in opposition to their claim. It's quite likely that much of the foreign R&D is funded by foreign taxpayers, and there is no discussion of the efficacy of spending on either side (note that my own discussion of this is marred by the same error, but at least I'm not claiming to be a researcher or publishing in a peer-reviewed journal).

The bundling mechanism described above is the mirror image of what Microsoft was accused of: by bundling Internet Explorer and other programs (like Wordpad and Calculate), they were "forcing" consumers to accept those undesirable goods along with the desirable Operating System. That was and remains nonsense since consumers had and have choices for OS and for browsers (whereas Apple was not accused of such things even though they forced consumers to take their hardware along with their OS and browser). The example of coercive monopsony, however, is different, since the producer (in that country's market) has no other choice for consumers by law. They basically have to concede the market to competitors or go along with the pricing demands of the NHS.

Or perhaps I have defined "the market" too tightly?

A Google for "coercive monopsony" yields only one hit, a review of a research paper about Fair Trade. Well, only one until I post this.

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Sunday, February 12, 2006

Research, Development, Manufacturing, and Imports

In the December 2005 edition of IEEE Spectrum magazine, they list the top 100 R&D spenders for 2004, worldwide. The top 10 are (or were):
  1. Ford, $7.400 billion (US), 4.3% of sales, $23,000 per employee
  2. DaimlerChrysler (Germany), $7.187 b, 4.0%, $19k/emp
  3. Toyota (Japan), $7.052 b, 4.1%, 27 k/emp
  4. Pfizer (US), $6.613 b, 12.6%, $58 k/emp
  5. General Motors Corp. (US), $6.500 b, 3.4%, 20 k/emp
  6. Siemens AG (Germany), $6.431 b, 6.7%, 15 k/emp
  7. Microsoft Corp (US), $6.184 b, 15.5%, 108 k/emp
  8. Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. (Japan), $5.748 b, 7.1%, 17 k/emp
  9. GlaxoSmithKline PLC (UK), $5.251 b, 13.9%, 53 k/emp
  10. Johnson & Johnson (US), $5.203 b, 11.0%, 47 k/emp
Out of the top 100, 40 are US, 24 are Japanese, 11 are German, 5 are French, 5 are Dutch, 3 each from the UK, Switzerland, Italy, 2 each are Korean and Swedish, and 1 Finnish and 1 Canadian.

As the statistics above show, the US produces lots of research, much of which benefits the rest of the world. The next time you hear that Americans are wasteful because they comprise 4% of the population but use 25% of the world's resources, remember that Americans actually helped in the production of those resources: Arabian Oil comes to the US and many other countries because the Arabian-American Oil Company (Aramco) developed the infrastructure. Of the Top 100 list's total of $254 billion in research, US companies spent $98.124 b or about 39%. The amazing thing is that although US companies are over-represented as a share of population in the Top 10, they are also increasingly dominant in the lower half of the Top 100. That is, while many foreign countries employ industrial policy that favors the support of a few mega-industries (corporatives they once called them), the more-or-less freewheeling US economy has lots of smaller actors. If we did the same analysis of the Top 200, I suspect that we'd find more and more American domination.

The Top 100 are dominated by Technology hardware ($64.8 b), Automobiles ($61.9 b), Pharmaceuticals ($51.7 b), Capital goods (airplanes) ($25.9 b), Consumer durables and apparel ($19.8 b), software and services ($8.9 b), Materials (chemicals)($8.4 b), and telecomm ($5.3 b). The article starts off with a naive statement: although the funding for the National Institutes of Health doubled between 1998 and 2003 (so much for ol' Cut Back on the Gubmint W. Bush myth) from $13.1 to $26.4 b, they ask
Why hasn't all this government largesse motivated the private sector to spend more of its own money on life sciences R&D?

After all, government spending on R&D isn't supposed to replace that of the private sector but to complement it -- by fostering an increase in general scientific understanding, honing the skills of graduate students, and correcting for market failures that would result in underinvestment... Given that the NIH funding increases began almost eight years ago, it stands to reason that pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms should be increasing R&D spending to exploit new discoveries and technologies generated by NIH-funded projects.
Two responses come to mind. First, duh! -- it's called "corporate welfare". Why should the companies increase their own spending when they can free ride? In fact, their benefit at the public trough is the trojan horse by which many would nationalize pharmaceuticals. Second, all spending ain't the same. In the early twentieth century, the federal government back Samuel P. Langley's attempts to build a heavier-than-air flying machine. While his taxpayer-supported efforts failed spectacularly, the Wright Brothers succeeded on their own dime. Why don't we learn? As many readers may recall, the government started the Human Genome Project in 1988 to map human DNA at a planned cost of $3 billion and schedule of 18 years. The task was actually accomplished by a private firm (Celera) in 3 years and using $300 m of their own money.

I heard a statistic the other day that I have since confirmed: manufacturing makes up only about 15% of the US economy. In that context, I heard someone else say that we are becoming more dependent on foreigners for our goods and our food. That isn't exactly a clear conclusion. Although the agricultural sector employment and share of the economy has decreased from something like 90% in 1776 to 2-3% today, we grow far more food then ever, both in absolute terms and per capita. The same is true of many manufactured goods. The US makes as much steel as we ever did, but it takes only 25% of the labor it did in 1990 to make the same amount. The difference isn't in output volume, it is in input. Technology and other factors have led to huge increases in productivity that allow us to make more with less. So much more that we have extra money to spend on things that we didn't even need and probably couldn't even get 30 years ago: PCs, cell phones, video games, hybrid cars. If we are importing these, it's most likely because of productivity increases that lead to increases in the national wealth and more disposable income. For reference, check out the figures in this (warning: large pdf) government report on manufacturing. Manufacturing output has remained steady, but the other parts of the economy have grown too, so manufacturing looks smaller as a percentage of the economy. For more reference, check out the latest data in the Statistical Abstract (another government report), which shows that although manufacturing is a lower percentage of total GDP (13.85% in 2004 vs. 14.19% in 1998 in chained dollars), the amount spent on it has gone up ($1.5 trillion vs. $1.39 trillion, chained dollars) even as the per unit prices have gone down (that is to say, we are not only building more, but we are getting more for our money). We may be producing as much steel for less money than 30 years ago, but we're also producing more steel substitutes that weren't even available, like carbon fiber.

And why would other countries spend more on health care R&D when they can free ride on the American taxpayer, the American health consumer, and American drug companies? It works like this: we pay taxes which are spent on NIH, Medicare, and Medicaid. We pay full price for drugs, including the amortized R&D costs. Foreign countries then strong-arm the drug companies to offer their goods in those countries at the marginal cost of manufacture; they pay only the manufacturing costs, not the production costs (which include both manufacturing and the amortized R&D). They strong-arm them by saying, "Play our game, and we won't declare your patents null and void and start really free riding on you." Nice deal if you can get it, but rather than thanking the American consumer, they sneer at our system. They tell us we should be like them; they want us to kill the Golden Goose and get all of the eggs for free. According to the IEEE figures, American drug companies spend 57% of the total amount spent on pharmaceutical R&D. That's a heck of a free ride by the other 96% of the world's population.

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Thursday, June 23, 2005

That which costs money, and that which is painful

Health Business Blog responds to a WSJ article about rising medical costs which a study's author attributes (in part) to rising technology costs. David Williams correctly asks whether this is the only industry in which technology drives costs up, rather than down. Trent McBride at Catallarchy ponders the (apparent?) puzzle.

Could it be a case of what is seen, and what is not?

I recently had ACL reconstruction surgery. It was the same procedure my Mom had, and even the same surgeon, but 20 years later. My procedure involved all kinds of high tech equipment (so they tell me - how do I really know?), and the invoices are starting to roll in. That's what we see.

What we don't see is the lack of a 5 day hospital stay and countless weeks on crutches and away from work (as in Mom's case). I never went to the hospital (their surgery facility was on-site), I was in the waiting room at 8 AM and back in the car by 12 noon (same day), I never used pain medication, I was walking without crutches 3 days later (not well, but still it was walking!), and I returned to work the next week. What would have been the cost to me and other impacted parties (my employer, my insurance company, the hospital, other hospital patients) if I had the older procedure? I think it would have been staggering.

What is the cost of pain not endured, of work not done, of life not lived? I know that I can calculate Bessel functions in Excel (to solve antenna pattern problems), but in WWII they had to fill gymnasiums with people using mechanical calculators to make up tables for radar engineers. Which is more expensive - a Dell with MS Office, or a gymful of people working for weeks on end? But today, all we see is the cost of the Office-equipped Dell, not the roomful of people.

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Monday, June 13, 2005

Canadian health care

Er, well, apparently the tide of folks heading north for "free" health care is about to be stemmed. Or, more properly, it looks like the Canadian Supreme Court has decided that in addition to the wealthy, who could always afford to go elsewhere rather than wait in line, now any Canadian will be able to buy private insurance (like they can even in France) and get out of line (either that or the gov't has the option of improving its system so much that people will not want/need to get out of line). What is the most appropriate headline?
Alarm! Alarm! The end of the world is nigh!

This just in: government services are inefficient!
Here are some quotes taken from the list of reactions by our Northern Neighbors in the Globe and Mail:
Canadians (especially doctors) who think private insurance is the answer may well want to consider the American experience: private physicians with more staff handling never-ending insurance paperwork than actually attending to patients. As Canadian [sic] probably know (most of my Americans don't), we spend a staggeringly larger fraction of our health care costs simply on administrative overhead than you do, making our privatized system more, not less, inefficient than yours....Economist Paul Krugman has astutely characterized the U.S. health care system as a Byzantine exercise in passing the costs to someone else.
Ooops, sorry, that was from an American quoting He Whose Name Has Lost Its Luster. Please note that at least she (he? Tressy) was accurate in one account: the American experience in the last 80 years has been with a private health care system, not a free market in health care. Even more preceisely, it has been mostly private, but with a growing public sector influence.
We know that Canadians did not need the Supreme Court to tell them that their governments had failed to deliver on the promise of universal and timely health care.
And another ...
I don't see how increasing access to private practice will increase the amount of health care resources available, which is the real issue with waiting lists....how about addressing the issues that result in many good Canadian doctors heading down to the United States[?]
You just can't make this stuff up, folks. Gee, preventing doctors from making money in Canada has nothing to do with them going elsewhere; let's build a wall, like they did in East Germany. The same idiot goes on to say,
I would rather pay a bit more tax for a system that works than end up with a system like the United States where the cost of health care insurance is a major burden on employers and individuals...
... as opposed to now, where it is a burden on ... um, taxpayers who are not individuals? How does that work? One commenter calls private health care, "immoral". One of the sinners has this to say:
I work in a private medical facility and patients thank me every year for the service we provide. About half of the patients we see don't even have a family physician so we are the only annual medical care they receive. For about 20 per cent of them, a medical condition they weren't aware of, was caught just in time.
Another says, "If I require an MRI or a CAT scan, chances are my doctor will tell me that the waiting list is close to 12 months in Ottawa." Yikes - when I needed an MRI earlier this year, it was scheduled to my convenience. I think there are something like 3 times more MRI scanners per capita in the US than in Canada, so at worst they should be delayed 3 x my delay, which was about 2 days from the time I requested it. For those of you in the cheap seats, that's a week, so why does it take a year?

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Saturday, May 14, 2005

I'm just trying to help out

Okay, so Jolly Old is having to contract out their medical services because it seems that NHS can't quite keep up. And Fidel has doctors to burn and could use the cash. The solution seems obvious, doesn't it? Kiss and make up, boys!

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Wednesday, May 11, 2005

More reasons to move from Canada

You know the joke: Canadians were ideally situated to have a nation with American government, French cusine, and English culture, but ended up with French government, English cuisine, and American culture. Empirical evidence for the type of government here and here. At least the Candian health care system is intact just as it is in Britain. And they did build that robotic arm thingy.

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Friday, April 01, 2005

Good Old Socialized Medicine?

Daniel nearly sprained his own arm patting socialized medicine on the back for inventing islet cell therapy. Ho-hum, been there done that. Still, since they are being heavily subsidized by capit ... um, non-soc ... er, how about less-socialized medicine?, then we shouldn't expect them not to hit a single every now and then. Especially when most of the experimentation and discovery of what doesn't work has been done for them (i.e., more subsidization). Finding out what doesn't work may actually be the more important part of innovation, if you can accept Thomas Edison's authority on the subject.

According to the UMM article, "Islet cell transplantation has been performed since the late 1970s, but a group of Canadian doctors improved the method several years ago." I wonder where it was first developed? Ugh, I see that the federal NIH is a Johnny-come-lately to the party, just as the other socialized medical researchers are.

More history here, here ("The vast majority of islet transplants have taken place in the United States, while 60 were performed in Germany and 30 in Italy"), and here (the actual publication of the Edomonton Protocol used in the UK). The immunosuppression drugs daclizumab, sirolimus, and tacrolimus were supplied to the Edmonton researchers by Roche (US)), Ayeth-Wyerst (US), and Fujisawa (Japan). Well, batting .333 in the majors is considered quite good (I'm assuming that Japan also has mostly- or all-socialized medicine, but I could be wrong).

Questions - are the UK experiments another disappointment in the making, given that that seems to be the history of islet transplants (though apparently not with the Edmonton Protocol)? What about the shortage of donors?

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Saturday, October 09, 2004

Bush Administration Spending (2 in a series)

Today's topic are three spending programs that tend to be grouped together: Medicare, Health, and Income Security. These figures are from the Statistical Abstract (spanned over several years) and are in current dollars. The chart below has been converted to chained 2002 dollars. The anomaly around 1976 has to do with a redefinition of the fiscal year in that year (this is a common problem in historical tables of federal spending).

Medicare ($M) Health ($M) Income Security ($M)
1960 0 55 1,514
1961 0 211 1,137
1962 0 268 4,097
1963 0 291 5,071
1964 0 795 7,378
1965 0 1,791 9,462
1966 64 2,543 9,671
1967 2,748 3,351 10,253
1968 4,649 4,390 11,806
1969 5,695 5,162 13,066
1970 6,213 5,907 15,645
1971 6,622 6,843 22,936
1972 7,479 8,674 27,638
1973 8,052 9,356 28,264
1974 9,639 10,733 33,699
1975 12,875 12,930 50,160
1976 15,834 15,734 60,784
1976 4,264 3,924 14,981
1977 19,345 17,302 61,044
1978 22,768 18,524 61,488
1979 26,495 20,494 66,359
1980 32,090 23,169 86,540
1981 39,149 26,866 99,723
1982 46,567 27,445 107,717
1983 52,588 28,641 122,598
1984 57,540 30,417 112,668
1985 65,822 33,542 128,200
1986 70,164 35,936 119,796
1987 75,120 39,967 123,250
1988 78,878 44,487 129,332
1989 84,964 48,390 136,031
1990 98,102 57,716 147,076
1991 104,489 71,183 170,276
1992 119,024 89,497 196,948
1993 130,552 99,415 207,250
1994 144,747 107,122 214,036
1995 159,855 115,418 220,493
1996 174,225 119,378 225,989
1997 194,256 127,630 238,855
1998 192,822 131,442 233,202
1999 190,447 141,079 237,707
2000 197,100 154,500 251,286
2001 217,400 172,300 269,600
2002 230,900 196,500 312,500
2003 244,700 223,100 330,100

These numbers are a little tougher to analyze than Head Start. The enrollment is harder to define as people move on and off of the programs, whereas kids tend to move in and out of HeadStart in fairly predictable patterns as they age. For example, it shouldn't be surprising to see Income Security rise as the economy tanks, and then fall as it improves.

  • Real spending on Health increased slightly from the mid 60s until the mid 70s, then stayed flat throughout the Carter era and Reagan's first term. It then accelerated through Reagan's second term and the first Bush term. It slowed (but still grew) a little in Clinton's first term, and then began an acceleration into the second Bush presidency.
  • Real spending on Medicare increase steadily (and rapidly) from inception through Clinton's second term, at which point real spending actually decreased for a few years before accelerating again in Clinton's last year. The increase trend has persisted into W's Administration.
  • Real spending (and again, these last three paragraphs are a description of realspending) on Income Security accelerated from the mid 60s to the mid 70s, slowed a bit in the late 70s, accelerated slightly in the Carter/Reagan I terms, then stayed flat until the Bush I Administration, accelerated for two years, flattened out as Clinton took office, and accelerated as Bush took office. This is interesting: real spending increases in a rough economic patch, but then stays at the new higher level.
From this, I believe that Bush spending looks more like Clinton spending, and Reagan spending looks like Carter spending. I think this underscores the fact that spending - while typically associated with presidents - is really attributable to Congresses. From a fiscally conservative standpoint, it looks as if having a President and Congress of opposite parties is good and turmoil in Congress is good, but once the Congress is firmly controlled by one party for several years (and it doesn't appear to matter which), spending accelerates. Current spending never decreases significantly, but real spending may.

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